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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to take a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "severe repercussions" last August should Vladimir Putin continued obstructing ceasefire talks, Trump finally enacted major penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected Putin's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

However, through his newly presented 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's proposal would essentially reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively compromise that essential independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business background, Trump continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, like ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. However, Putin's war is not merely about dominating a charred area of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent desire to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an attractive example for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

Although keeping in status the currently split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would require Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this surrender would make Ukraine's defensive positions critically compromised.

The area is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Putin a open route to the capital in case he eventually decide to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate renewed hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their present large number personnel to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal imposes no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, Trump's plan states: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

Admittedly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent agreements in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should the international community trust this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the plan threatens a "immediate joint armed reaction" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics vary from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened forces, rearming, and attacking again.

International Response

A separate supplementary accord apparently would offer the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. However in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not