Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
