Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”