A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
